Keith Underwood No Comments

Notable events the week of 6th April 2015

Opening pitch of the 2015 Major League Baseball season is 8 p.m. EST Sunday, April 5 between the Cardinals and the Cubs and the 28 remaining teams will open the season on April 6.  After this past winter in the Northeast, baseball is a welcome sign of the impending warmer weather that is long overdue.  I make no predictions on the World Series other than to say Go Yankees!

Monday the 6th:

Japan Leading indicator (Prelim.) index 104.9 exp. versus 105.50 prior

US Fed’s Dudley Speaks on Economic Outlook in New Jersey

Canada Ivey PMI index 49.5 exp. versus 49.7 prior

US ISM Non-Manufacturing index 56.6 exp. versus 56.9 prior


Tuesday the 7th:

New Zealand RBA overnight rate 2.25% exp. versus 2.25% prior

Spain, France & Germany Services PMI

Eurozone Composite PMI index 54.1 exp. versus 54.1 prior

Eurozone Services PMI index 54.3 exp. versus 54.3 prior

UK CIPS/Markit Servies PMI index 57 exp. versus 56.7 prior

Eurozone PPI %m/m -0.7 exp. versus -0.9 prior

US Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in North Dakota


Wednesday the 8th:

Japan BoJ Policy statement and Governor Kuroda press conference

German factory orders (sa) %m/m 1.5 exp. versus -3.19 prior

Swiss CPI %m/m 0.1 exp. versus -0.3 prior

US Fed’s Dudley speaks on monetary policy in New York

Canada Minister Olivers to speak on state of the Canadian  economy

Japan BoJ MPC- Overnight rate % 0.1 exp. versus 0.1 prior


Thursday the 9th:

German industrial production %m/m 0.1 exp. versus 0.6 prior

UK BoE Monetary policy committee meeting and rate decision

UK BoE MPC – APF total 375 bn exp. versus 375 bn prior

UK BoE MPC – Base rate % 0.5 exp. versus 0.5 prior

Canada Building permits %m/m 8.5 exp. versus -12.9 prior

Canada House price index %m/m 0.1 exp. versus -0.1 prior

US Initial claims 278k exp. versus 268k prior


Friday the 10th:

China CPI %y/y 1.3 exp. versus 1.4 prior

China PPI %y/y -4.7 exp. versus -4.8 prior

Swiss Unemployment 3.2% exp. versus 3.2% prior

France Industrial production %m/m -0.5 exp. versus 0.4 prior

France Manufacturing production %m/m 0.0 exp. versus -0.1 prior

UK Industrial production %m/m 0.3 exp. versus -0.1 prior

UK Manufacturing production %m/m 0.3 exp. versus -0.5 prior

Canada Housing starts 170k exp. versus 156.3 prior

Canada Net change in employment -10k exp. versus -1k prior

US Fed’s Lacker speaks on economic outlook in Florida

US Import price index %m/m -0.6 exp. versus 0.4 prior

US Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Minnesota

Keith Underwood No Comments

Notable events the week of 30th March 2015

Lots of data out this week but all eyes will be on the US employment figures due out on Friday.  Until then, one should expect range trading in currencies as Yellen’s speech on Friday provided little new information about when rates will rise and it’s all about upcoming wage growth and core consumer price data.

Monday 30th:

Eurozone business climate index 0.18 expected versus 0.07 prior

Eurozone consumer sentiment index -3.7 expected versus -3.7 prior

Eurozone economic sentiment index 103 expected versus 102.1 prior

German CPI (Prelim.) %m/m 0.4 expected versus 0.9 prior

German HICP (Prelim.) %m/m 0.5 expected versus 1.0 prior

US Personal income %m/m 0.3 expected versus 0.3 prior

US Personal spending %m/m 0.2 expected versus -0.2 prior

US Fed’s Fischer speaks on monetary policy and stability in Georgia

Tuesday the 31st:

German retail sales %m/m -0.7 expected versus 2.3 prior

German unemployment change -14k expected versus -20k prior

UK GDP (3rd est.) 0.5 expected versus 0.5 prior

Eurozone flash HICP %y/y -0.1 expected versus -0.3 prior

Eurozone Unemployment 11.2% expected versus 11.2% prior

US Fed’s Lacker speaks on economic outlook in Richmond

US S&P Case-Shiller home price %y/y 4.6 expected versus 4.46 prior

US Chicago PMI index 52.4 expected versus 45.8 prior

US Consumer confidence index 96.6 expected versus 96.4 prior

Japan Tankan index 14 expected versus 12 prior

Wednesday the 1st:

China PMI Manufacturing index 49.7 expected versus 49.9 prior

China HSBC/Markit PMI Manufacturing index 49.3 expected versus 49.2 prior

French Manufacturing index 48.2 expected versus 48.2 prior

German Manufacturing index 52.4 expected versus 52.4 prior

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI index 51.9 expected versus 51.9 prior

US ADP employment survey 230k expected versus 212k prior

US Manufacturing PMI index 55.1 expected versus 55.3 prior

US ISM Manufacturing index 52.5 expected versus 52.9 prior

US Vehicle sales 16.9mm expected versus 16.16mm prior

Thursday the 2nd:

UK CIPS/Markit construction PMI index 60.4 expected versus 60.1 prior

US Initial claims 285k expected versus 282k prior

Friday the 3rd:

US Non-farm payrolls 250k expected versus 295k prior

US Private payrolls 245k expected versus 288k prior

US Unemployment 5.5% expected versus 5.5% prior


Keith Underwood No Comments

Notable events the week of 23rd March 2015

Expect more headline trading this week with a plethora of Fed speakers littering the calendar and Bullard, the loose cannon) speaking twice this week (see below).  The best one is saved for last though, as Yellen speaks on Friday afternoon, near the close of the market.  I would imagine that weekend gamma will be expensive, due the timing of this speech, and the potential for the Yellen cake hole cannon to let loose.


Monday the 23rd:

US Fed’s Mester speaks in Paris

US Existing home sales 4.94m expected versus 4.82m prior

US Fed’s Williams speaks on economic outlook

US Fed Vice Chair Fischer speaks in New York

Tuesday the 24th:

China Flash HSBC/Markit PMI manufacturing index 50.4 expected versus 50.7 prior

Eurozone Flash Composite PMI index 53.6 expected versus 53.3 prior

Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI index 51.5 expected versus 51 prior

Eurozone Flash Services PMI 53.9 expected versus 53.7 prior

UK CPI %m/m 0.3 expected versus -0.9 prior

US Fed’s Bullard speaks on Global Recovery in London

US CPI %m/m 0.1 expected versus -0.7 prior

US CPI %m/m (ex food & energy) 0.1 expected versus 0.2 prior

US Flash Manufacturing PMI index 54.7 expected versus 55.1 prior

US New home sales 475k expected versus 481k prior

Wednesday the 25th:

German IFO Business climate index 107.3 expected versus 106.8 prior

German IFO Current conditions index 111.8 expected versus 111.3 prior

German IFO Expectations index 103 expected versus 102.5 prior

US Fed’s Evans speaks on the economy & monetary policy in London

US Durable goods orders %m/m 0.5 expected versus 2.8 prior

Thursday the 26th:

US Fed’s Bullard speaks on US Economy & Policy in Frankfurt

Eurozone M3 Money supply %y/y 4.3 expected versus 4.1 prior

UK Retail sales (ex auto, fuel) %m/m 0.3 expected versus -0.7 prior

US Initial claims 295k expected versus 291k prior

US Fed’s Lockhart speaks on Economy & Monetary Policy in Detroit

Canada BoC’s Governor Poloz to give speech

Japan CPI Core (nation) %y/y 2.1 expected versus 2.2 prior

Japan Real Household Spending %y/y -3.2 expected versus -5.1 prior

Japan Unemployment % 3.5 expected versus 3.6 prior

Japan Retail Sales %m/m 0.9 expected versus -1.9 prior

Japan Retail Sales %y/y -1.4 expected versus -2 prior

Friday the 27th:

US GDP Annualized (3rd est.) %q/q ann 2.4 expected versus 2.2 prior

US University of Michigan sentiment index 91.8 expected versus 91.2 prior

US Fed’s Yellen speaks on Monetary Policy in San Francisco  Quick, discreet, and so worth the risk.



Keith Underwood No Comments

Notable events the week of the 2nd March 2015

Monday the 2nd March:

US Personal Income %m/m 0.4 expected versus 0.3 prior

US Personal Spending %m/m -0.1 expected versus -0.3 prior

US ISM Manufacturing index 53 expected versus 53.5 prior


Tuesday the 3rd March:

RBA – Overnight Rate 2% expected versus 2.25% prior

German Retail Sales %m/m 0.4 expected versus 0.6 prior

Eurozone PPI %m/m -0.7 expected versus -1 prior

Canadian GDP %q/q 2 expected versus 2.8 prior

Senate Banking Committee Hearing on Federal Reserve Reform

US Vehicle Sales 16.7 mm expected versus 16.56 mm prior


Wednesday the 4th March:

New Zealand GDP %q/q 0.7 expected versus 0.3 prior

US Feds Yellen Speaks on Bank Regulation in New York

French Services PMI index 53.4 expected versus 53.4 prior

German Services PMI index 55.5 expected versus 55.5 prior

ADP Employment Survey 218k expected versus 213k prior

Fed’s Evens Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in Illinois

BoC Overnight Rate 0.75% expected versus 0.75% prior

US ISM Non-Manufacturing index 56.5 expected versus 56.7 prior

Fed’s George Speaks on Economy in Kansas City


Thursday the 5th March:

German Factory Orders %m/m -1 expected versus 4.2 prior

BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting and rate decision – no change expected from 0.5%

US Initial Claims 295k expected versus 313k prior

Canadian Ivey PMI index 49 expected versus 45.4 prior

Fed’s Williams Speaks on Economic Outlook in Honolulu


Friday the 6th March:

US Nonfarm Payrolls m/m change 230k expected versus 257k prior

US Unemployment Rate 5.6% expected versus 5.7% prior

US Average Hourly Earnings m/m change 0.2% expected versus 0.5% prior


A Currency Affair

Quick, discreet and so worth the risk


Keith Underwood No Comments

Notable events the week of the 2nd February 2015

Monday the 2nd:

China HSBC/Markit PMI Manufacturing  49.8 versus 49.8 prior

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 51 versus 51 prior

UK CIPS/Markit Manufacturing PMI 52.8 versus 52.5

US Personal income 0.2 versus 0.4 prior

US Personal spending -0.2 versus 0.6 prior

US ISM Manufacturing 54.8 versus 55.1 prior


Tuesday the 3rd:

New Zealand RBA Overnight Rate 2.5 versus 2.5 prior

US Factory orders -2 versus -0.7 prior

New Zealand RBA interest rate meeting

US Vehicle sales 16.8m versus 16.8 prior


Wednesday the 4th:

Eurozone Services PMI 52.3 versus 52.3 prior

UK CIPS/Markit Services PMI 56.4 versus 55.8 prior

US ADP Employment Survey 220k versus 241k prior

US ISM Non-Manufacturing index 56.5 versus 56.5 prior


Thursday the 5th:

New Zealand Retail trade 0.3 versus 0.1 prior

German Factory Orders m/m 1.3 versus -2.4 prior

UK BoE MPC – Base Rate 0.5 versus 0.5 prior

US Initial Claims 305k versus 265k prior


Friday the 6th:

German Industrial Production m/m 0.3 versus -0.1 prior

Canadian Net Change in Employment 5k versus -11.3k prior

Canadian Unemployment 6.7% versus 6.7% prior

US Non-Farm Payrolls 231k versus 252k prior

US Unemployment 5.6% versus 5.6 prior

US Fed’s Lockhart speaks on the US economy in Florida (5:45PM)