Keith Underwood 1 Comment

July NFP: A marginal increase of +215,000

Total US nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in July, the unemployment rate held at 5.3%, and average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose a nickel, to just under $25. May and June NFP combined was revised just +14,000. July’s marginal increase of +215,000 does not, in my opinion, secure a September rate liftoff, but it does keep the prospect of a September (well telegraphed this week by FED talking heads) move alive. I continue to believe that 2016 will be the start of a gradual process to normalize rates.

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Notable events the week of the 2nd March 2015

Monday the 2nd March:

US Personal Income %m/m 0.4 expected versus 0.3 prior

US Personal Spending %m/m -0.1 expected versus -0.3 prior

US ISM Manufacturing index 53 expected versus 53.5 prior

 

Tuesday the 3rd March:

RBA – Overnight Rate 2% expected versus 2.25% prior

German Retail Sales %m/m 0.4 expected versus 0.6 prior

Eurozone PPI %m/m -0.7 expected versus -1 prior

Canadian GDP %q/q 2 expected versus 2.8 prior

Senate Banking Committee Hearing on Federal Reserve Reform

US Vehicle Sales 16.7 mm expected versus 16.56 mm prior

 

Wednesday the 4th March:

New Zealand GDP %q/q 0.7 expected versus 0.3 prior

US Feds Yellen Speaks on Bank Regulation in New York

French Services PMI index 53.4 expected versus 53.4 prior

German Services PMI index 55.5 expected versus 55.5 prior

ADP Employment Survey 218k expected versus 213k prior

Fed’s Evens Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in Illinois

BoC Overnight Rate 0.75% expected versus 0.75% prior

US ISM Non-Manufacturing index 56.5 expected versus 56.7 prior

Fed’s George Speaks on Economy in Kansas City

 

Thursday the 5th March:

German Factory Orders %m/m -1 expected versus 4.2 prior

BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting and rate decision – no change expected from 0.5%

US Initial Claims 295k expected versus 313k prior

Canadian Ivey PMI index 49 expected versus 45.4 prior

Fed’s Williams Speaks on Economic Outlook in Honolulu

 

Friday the 6th March:

US Nonfarm Payrolls m/m change 230k expected versus 257k prior

US Unemployment Rate 5.6% expected versus 5.7% prior

US Average Hourly Earnings m/m change 0.2% expected versus 0.5% prior

 

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keith@underwoodfx.com