Keith Underwood 2 Comments

3 Things to consider about the August NFP @ +173,000

  • Revisions to June and July NFP figures of +44,000 brings the 3 month average gain to +221,000
  • Average hourly earnings are up 0.56% since June and up 2.2% from August 2014
  • August NFP of +173,000 is 30% below the 12 month average gain of +247,000


Looking through the lens of the FED, there are positives and negatives about today’s NFP release. On the face of it, a sub-200k number is a slight cause for concern, as the bobble heads will stoke a return Read more

Keith Underwood 1 Comment

July NFP: A marginal increase of +215,000

Total US nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in July, the unemployment rate held at 5.3%, and average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose a nickel, to just under $25. May and June NFP combined was revised just +14,000. July’s marginal increase of +215,000 does not, in my opinion, secure a September rate liftoff, but it does keep the prospect of a September (well telegraphed this week by FED talking heads) move alive. I continue to believe that 2016 will be the start of a gradual process to normalize rates.

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Keith Underwood No Comments

US March Nonfarm Payrolls Dissapoints

Total US nonfarm payroll employment rose by 126,000 in February and the unemployment rate remained at 5.5%. Job gains continued in professional and business services, health care, and in retail trade. Revisions from the previous months where January was revised down from +239,000 to +201,000 and the change for February was revised from +295,000 to +264,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February were 69,000 lower than previously reported. This takes the 3-month average gains to just 197,000 per month, from 288,000 previously and ends the 12-month streak of job gains above 200,000 for the month.

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