Keith Underwood No Comments

Notable events the week of 16th March 2015

Monday the 16th:

US Empire State Survey index 8 expected versus 7.78 prior

US Capacity Utilization 79.5% expected versus 79.4% prior

US Industrial Production %m/m 0.2 expected versus 0.2 prior

US NAHB Builders Survey index 57 expected versus 55 prior

ECB President Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt

Tuesday the 17th:

Eurozone HICP %m/m 0.6 expected versus -1.6 prior

Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) index 53.4 expected versus 52.7

German ZEW (Current Conditions) index 52 expected versus 45.5 prior

German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) index 59.5 expected versus 53 prior

US Housing Starts k 1050 expected versus 1065 prior

ECB’s Nouy Speaks in Frankfurt

US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting

Wednesday the 18th:

UK BoE MPC minutes released

UK Claimant Count Change -32.5k expected versus -38.6k prior

UK ILO Unemployment Rate 5.6% expected versus 5.7 prior

US FOMC – Fed Funds Rate 0.25% expected versus 0.25% prior

Thursday the 19th:

US Initial Claims 305k expected versus 289k prior

US Leading Indicator %m/m 0.3 expected versus 0.2 prior

US Philadelphia Fed Survey index 8 expected versus 5.2 prior

Friday the 20th:

German PPI %m/m 0.2 expected versus -0.6 prior

Canada CPI %m/m 0.7 expected versus -0.2 prior

Canada Retail Sales %m/m -0.5 expected versus -2 prior

Fed’s Lockhart Speaks on Monetary Policy in Georgia

Fed’s Evans Speaks on Monetary Policy in Georgia

A Currency Affair

Quick, discreet, and so worth the risk.

Keith@UnderwoodFX.com

Keith Underwood No Comments

CURRENCY PREDICTIONS FOR 2015

We all know from The Economist long ago that currencies is a ‘mugs game’ but just for fun I will offer out my predictions for certain currency pairs on 31st December 2015. We used to do this at year-end on the trading desk to kill time but rarely was the keeper of the predictions able to find them the following year or, worse, he was no longer with the bank. In that instance, our previous years predictions were invariably lost to the HR department’s desk contents file. Incidentally, today’s desk contents file is managed by the compliance department, as is most everything at banks these days. Since I am starting out this year I have none to review from last year so lets make some predictions just for kicks and not wager a dime on them.

 

Currency

AUD/USD

USD/CAD

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/MXN

USD/NOK

NZD/USD

USD/SEK

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

Today’s Rate

0.8115

1.1620

1.2175

120.40

14.6900

7.4700

0.7760

7.8570

0.9875

1.5555

 

31st December 2015

0.7465

1.2315

1.1200

129.45

16.0120

8.1050

0.7605

8.3285

1.0370

1.4935

 

 

 

The US dollar will outperform in 2015 due to anticipated interest rate rises by the FED, improved wages/consumer spending and the general poor economies of Europe and Japan and those countries reliant on the price of oil. I believe these macro themes will dominate a majority of the year and provide the FX market the much needed trend that fund managers and sell-side traders so desperately need to justify expensive remuneration for services that are increasingly being performed by algorithms.

Wishing everyone a very happy, healthy and prosperous 2015!