Keith Underwood No Comments

The FOMC Passes On A June Rate Rise

The Federal Reserve released the April FOMC statement which essentially restates that the committee will be data dependent in its decision to normalize rates and that the economy still has an opportunity to improve.

If one only were to look at the comparison between the March and April statements (March is italicized), it is easy to read that the economic signals are mixed and that their expectations are

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Keith Underwood No Comments

Notable events the week of 16th March 2015

Monday the 16th:

US Empire State Survey index 8 expected versus 7.78 prior

US Capacity Utilization 79.5% expected versus 79.4% prior

US Industrial Production %m/m 0.2 expected versus 0.2 prior

US NAHB Builders Survey index 57 expected versus 55 prior

ECB President Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt

Tuesday the 17th:

Eurozone HICP %m/m 0.6 expected versus -1.6 prior

Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) index 53.4 expected versus 52.7

German ZEW (Current Conditions) index 52 expected versus 45.5 prior

German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) index 59.5 expected versus 53 prior

US Housing Starts k 1050 expected versus 1065 prior

ECB’s Nouy Speaks in Frankfurt

US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting

Wednesday the 18th:

UK BoE MPC minutes released

UK Claimant Count Change -32.5k expected versus -38.6k prior

UK ILO Unemployment Rate 5.6% expected versus 5.7 prior

US FOMC – Fed Funds Rate 0.25% expected versus 0.25% prior

Thursday the 19th:

US Initial Claims 305k expected versus 289k prior

US Leading Indicator %m/m 0.3 expected versus 0.2 prior

US Philadelphia Fed Survey index 8 expected versus 5.2 prior

Friday the 20th:

German PPI %m/m 0.2 expected versus -0.6 prior

Canada CPI %m/m 0.7 expected versus -0.2 prior

Canada Retail Sales %m/m -0.5 expected versus -2 prior

Fed’s Lockhart Speaks on Monetary Policy in Georgia

Fed’s Evans Speaks on Monetary Policy in Georgia

A Currency Affair

Quick, discreet, and so worth the risk.

Keith Underwood 1 Comment

The FED will not raise US interest rates in 2015

A perfect macro-economic storm has erupted that the FED did not anticipate. As a result of the storm, the FED will delay raising interest rates from mid-2015 until early 2016. The FED did not foresee that global macro-economic events that have recently unfolded would collide in spectacular fashion and force their hand to stay put. The powerful combination of a vastly stronger US dollar, the collapse in the price of oil, and struggling world growth will keep the FED from raising interest rates in 2015.

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Keith Underwood No Comments

Notable events the week of 26th January 2015

Tuesday the 27th:

UK GDP (1st Est.) q/q: market expects 0.6 versus 0.7 prior

Federal Reserve FOMC meeting begins


Wednesday the 28th:

Australia CPI q/q: market expects 0.3 versus 0.5 prior

FOMC – Fed Funds Rate: market expects 0.25 versus 0.25 prior

RBNZ РCash Rate:  market expects 3.5 versus 3.5 prior


Thursday the 29th:

German HICP (Prelim.): market expect -1 versus 0.1 prior


Friday the 30th:

Eurozone Flash HICP: market expects 0 versus -0.1 prior

Canadian GDP: market expects 0 versus 0.3 prior

US GDP Annualized (1st Est.): market expects 3.1 versus 5 prior